The Velvet Glove

Some of us have been discussing why France and Russia win more often than other countries. So I was thinking, how do you stop that? Obviously, a grand, 5-way alliance against them works. But if you can't get that going, how can you curtail their expansion?

 

The key is Italy.

 

Why Does Russia Always Win?

Russia is bordered by four countries (counting England), but they never truly become a major early target like the central countries do, despite this fact. The reason why is simple: no one wants to attack him. Everybody wants to be Russia's friend!

 

In the south, Austria and Turkey are mortal enemies. Alliances between them can be forged, but they are almost always tenuous and soon-broken. The average Austria and Turkey will both seek help from the bear to the north to help take out the other one. A good Russian player can always ensure his survival early on, simply because he's bound to find a friend (or two) down south.

 

In the north, England and Germany have more immediate concerns than Russia. Maybe if they ally, then Russia will face a bit of pressure early on. But really not that much, at least until later. England and Germany want to resolve the northern triangle before anything else. Russia can usually take Sweden, and placate the two neighbours with a stance of neutrality.

 

So Russia basically has a free pass to the mid-game, and generally as a middle power if not a large one - a couple gains in the south and Russia suddenly grows to quite the intimidating size. And by the time he does, sure, he might face some opposition - but he's so strong compared to the others that he can probably hold it off. One of two things will then happen - everyone bands together and grinds down Russia till he's gone, or Russia is too strong and sweeps over all opponents for the victory. This is reflected in the stats - Russia often has the best win record, while also holding the worst elimination record.

 

So Why Does France Always Win?

France can also usually secure a pass to the mid-game as a relatively strong power. Even if England and Germany attack him together, he could be able to hold them off - the only way to ensure France's quick destruction is to blitz him in the first year, before he gains his free builds. But as that rarely happens, France can gain Spain and Portugal, maybe Belgium, and easily clog up the middle with armies to keep Germany out while building a second fleet to keep England at bay. Also, theoretically, 2/3 of the time France will be on the winning end of the 2 vs 1 alliance that almost always forms in the north.

 

So why is France always so positionally secure? The answer is simple - he doesn't face pressure from all sides. Every other country on the board does, but not France. Why is that? Because Italy leaves him alone, giving France one front in the north to worry about and leaving his back safely open. With only one front, no wonder France so often finds himself still alive and going strong late into the game. By the time he does have to worry about his southern flank, he will have grown even stronger (well, at least 2/3 of the time) and be able to deal with it.

 

The Crazy Franco-Italian Alliance

I've always found the Franco-Italian standard DMZ alliance a strange one. Along with the Austrian-German agreement, it's the game's only other "natural" early game alliance that occurs 80% of the time if not more. But there's a difference in the two. With Austria and Germany, it's complete suicide for one to attack the other, hencethey don't. But it's only complete suicide for France to attack Italy. Italy can easily attack France and get away with it. Sure, he has to be quick, or else Turkey or Austria might grow too large to handle. But with the right diplomacy, Italy should have free reign to sail off west - hell, it will be encouraged! Neither Turkey nor Austria wants an impatient Italy who's unable to expand anywhere looming at their backs.

 

But for some reason, Italy always agrees to the DMZ with France. And this agreement only benefits France, as he can leave his back door open and focus on the north. Meanwhile, Italy may make a few gains in the south, but is more often than not shut out, and stuck at a meagre 4 centres until someone remembers about him and takes him out.

 

The Flow of the Game

Now I'm not saying the key to Italian success necessarily lies west. But this isn't about that. What I'm arguing is that France (and indirectly Russia - more on that later) have a better chance at success than other countries because Italy rarely attacks France early enough in the game.

 

Let's say, then, that Italy attacks France first. What happens? Well, France probably dies. Unless he has a strong alliance and has already made quick gains against either England or Germany, he's probably toast. Germany or England, if not both, will no doubt be strongly tempted to invade as well, taking advantage of a France focused south, and make their own gains. And even if this doesn't happen according to plan, and France is already mopping up one neighbour and is easily fending you off at the same time - well, you were going to have to deal with him anyway, as he was no doubt coming after you next, so at least you gained the small advantage of first strike.

 

But let's say England and Germany jump at the chance and help you take him out. Now, France is gone, and you've gained a few centres for it. What about Russia? Well assuming the triangles have by this point been resolved, Russia will probably be standing out as an early leader, having nabbed a few centres from Austria or Turkey as he helped the other one take them out. But now two things have occurred:

• Russia is probably the leader, and faces a potential stop-the-leader alliance being formed, and

• England and Germany have been working together, raising the chance for an alliance against Russia as well. After all, when two players work together successfully, the odds of them sticking together go up. And seeing as their alliance has nowhere else to go (England may try to attack you, but that's easy enough to fend off)...

 

So really, providing there are no unusual circumstances, it shouldn't be too difficult to organize a stop-the-leader campaign and get England and Germany on board, thus keeping Russia in check and stopping him from running away with another game.

 

And this doesn't even require any agreement or discussion amongst the other 5 players - again, in the average game, things should unfold more or less along lines close enough to these ones that the next step comes naturally for everyone. France is Russia's counterweight in the west, and if he goes, Russia may be facing stiff resistance as well. All because Italy reversed direction in his attacks.

 

The Key to Italian Success?

Okay, but where does this leave you as Italy, then? It would be nice to have France and Russia reduced to mere mortals no doubt, but who the hell would sacrifice their own game right from the get-go just so that someone else can win for a change?

 

But let's look at where Italy lies after this ordeal:

• One neighbour is gone, and you've gained at least two, very possibly three SCs out of it (Mar, Spa, Por).

• Your other neighbours were happy to [be at peace with you] and probably didn't waste resources on attacking you. Even though now they've no doubt resolved their issues and are ready to come hungrily after you, you've gained those two or three builds - enough to hold them off until reinforcements from your now-resolved western front can come up to support.

• Your back is relatively safe now, as England or Germany attacking you is a potential dead end for them. England probably won't be able to break into the Mediterranean, and Germany can barely touch you anyway, with Switzerland in the way. Plus, if you can direct their attention to the growing purple threat behind them...

• You are no longer weak little Italy, ready to be snapped up by a larger power. You sit at 6 or 7 SCs, and are ready to do some damage.

 

Weigh this against Italy's other usual options:

• The Lepanto? Very few gains to be had from there, and it leaves you between a strong Austria and a France who has resolved his own triangle and is looking for a new target.

• Attacking Austria? If you don't grab Trieste or Greece from him in the first year, good luck with that - he'll be too strong to deal with alone. And if you get Russia and Turkey to work together against him? Yeah, because juggernaut alliances are exactly what you and everyone else wants.

• What else is there? Attacking Germany? Can that even be considered an option?

• Or sitting still and waiting. Because that wins games.

 

Now, obviously it's not a golden path to victory, for Italy to attack France. But under the right conditions, which aren't impossible to achieve in any given game, it's certainly not a bad idea to consider. And again, what are your other options? Are they really any better?

 

Opening Moves

Yeah, yeah, this is all just theory and conjecture so far. So how about actual, concrete moves?

Spring 1901

Rom-Apu

Nap-ION

Ven Hold

 

Fall 1901

Apu-Tun

ION C Apu-Tun

Ven Hold

Build

F Nap

 

Looks like the standard Italian opening now. Is that a Lepanto I spy?

 

Spring 1902

Tun-Naf

ION-Tun

Nap-TYS

Ven Hold/-Pie

 

Fall 1902

Naf Hold

Tun-WMS

TYS-GOL

Ven-Pie/Pie Hold

...and suddenly, you have four units lined up nicely against France. You can convoy into Spain, or just attack Marseilles. Whatever you want. 1903 you could have both, and build A Ven and F Nap to deter a now-stronger Austria or Turkey from looking at you as easy meat. France is crippled, and Portugal is probably open to you as well for 1904.

 

In addition, this also provides you with a chance to stop before it's too late, in case something crops up in the south. After the first year, maybe you realise that you need to stay in the south to keep the balance of power in check; or maybe you just spotted an opening for a stab on Austria. Either way, you can scrap your plans after 1901 if you need to, and still be in a perfectly fine position - it's a standard Italian opening after all.

 

Also, obviously France will spot it coming after the S02 moves, once all your units move in a westward direction. But what can he do? If he has a fleet in MAO it mightprove a pest; but that's where your diplomacy skills come in. Get him to take the Channel if you can, or at least have him occupied with England enough that he doesn't abandon his position to come defend against you instead. Otherwise, Spain and Portugal are probably once again isolated, as he's moved his units back north. Marseilles may be supported, but a talk with Germany can resolve that issue; plus, if you take Spain first, that's another unit to attack with right there.

 

It may all go wrong. But if you're so concerned about Italy never winning games, and France and Russia always doing so, why not? What do you have to lose?

 

Conclusion

Italy can be the key in stopping another victory by France or even Russia. Moving against France early will change the regular flow of the game and shake things up - including by eliminating France and indirectly putting more pressure on Russia. And if executed well, a French attack can also prove extremely beneficial to Italy, getting him past that 4 SC block and turning him into an influential player.